War

Afghan attack kills six Americans.

NATO airstrike kills four policemen and two civilians.

Kim Jong Un is in a box.

"Kim Jong Un is in a box. If he launches an attack, he risks escalation into war. But if his bluster about battling the United States turns out to be all bluff, he risks becoming an object of ridicule in Asia and at home."

This is why I predicted somebody will die before this is over. A few years ago his father shelled an island and killed some people. Something similar is likely to happen this time. But it won't erupt into war.

"To avoid a collision, a diplomatic path will have to be opened for Kim to back away from the confrontation he has provoked. But, in the longer term, America has to ask herself: What are we doing, 20 years after the end of the Cold War, with 28,000 troops in Korea and thousands on the DMZ facing the North? What are we doing there that South Korean soldiers could not do for themselves? Why is South Korea’s defense our responsibility, 60 years after President Eisenhower ended the Korean War? For over a decade, some of us have urged the United States to pull all U.S. troops off the peninsula. Had we done so, we would not be in the middle of this crisis now. South Korea is not inherently weaker than the North. It has twice the population, and its economy is 40 times as large. And the South has access to U.S. weapons superior to anything the North can acquire. After Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq, as Robert Gates said, any defense secretary who recommends that America fight a new land war in Asia ought to have his head examined."

Powerful people profit from having US troops in South Korea. That's why they're still there.

"The long-run danger that has to be addressed is this: Kim Jong Un is about 30, and his life expectancy, absent a coup, is 40 or 50 years. Yet, within a few years, if he persists as he promises to do, he could have dozens of nuclear-armed missiles pointed at South Korea, Japan and Okinawa. And if Pyongyang becomes a nuclear weapons state, it is difficult to see how Seoul and Tokyo will not be required to match its nuclear arsenal, as Pakistan felt compelled to match India’s. And a nuclear-armed South Korea or Japan would hardly be welcomed in Beijing."

I think they'll develop nukes to deter China anyway. This isn't a bad thing. Nuclear deterrence has proven tremendously effective. That's why the North developed nukes.

What's driving the North Korean bluster.

"The U.S. is well aware North Korea’s statements are not backed up by sufficient military power to implement its rhetorical threats, but appears to be escalating tensions all the same. South Korean President Park Geun-hye also realizes the threats are rhetorical but declared: “We should make a strong and immediate retaliation without any other political considerations if [the North] stages any provocation against our people.” "
"Since the end of the Korean War 60 years ago, the Worker’s Party government of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) has repeatedly put forward virtually the same four proposals to the United States. They are:
1. A peace treaty to end the Korean War. 2. The reunification of Korea, which has been “temporarily” divided into North and South since 1945. 3. An end to the U.S. occupation of South Korea and a discontinuation of annual month-long U.S-South Korean war games. 4. Bilateral talks between Washington and Pyongyang to end tensions on the Korean peninsula.
The U.S. and its South Korean protectorate have rejected each proposal over the years."
"Two Koreas exist as the product of an agreement between the USSR (which bordered Korea and helped to liberate the northern part of country from Japan in World War II) and the U.S., which occupied the southern half. Although socialism prevailed in the north and capitalism in the south, it was not to be a permanent split. The two big powers were to withdraw after a couple of years, allowing the country to reunify. Russia did so; the U.S. didn’t. Then came the devastating three-year war in 1950. Since then, North Korea has made several different proposals to end the separation that has lasted since 1945. The most recent proposal, I believe, is “one country two systems.” This means that while both halves unify, the south remains capitalist and the north remains socialist. It will be difficult but not impossible. Washington does not want this. It seeks the whole peninsula, bringing its military apparatus directly to the border with China, and Russia as well."

Ah ha. That last sentence makes it all clear.

"The U.S.-South Korea war games in March were preceded in February U.S.-Japanese war games named “Iron Fist.” In both cases Washington implicitly demonstrated it would stand with Seoul or Tokyo and against Pyongyang or Beijing if push came to shove. The U.S.-Japanese effort was aimed at capturing an imaginary island — a direct military warning to China, which claims possession to the Senkaku Islands, as does Japan. "

The annual US-Korean war games were the trigger for the bellicosity.

"Brian Becker, leader of the antiwar ANSWER Coalition leader, noted March 31: “The Pentagon and the South Korean military today — and throughout the past year — have been staging massive war games that simulate the invasion and bombing of North Korea. Few people in the United States know the real situation. The work of the war propaganda machine is designed to make sure that the American people do not join together to demand an end to the dangerous and threatening actions of the Pentagon on the Korean Peninsula.
“The propaganda campaign is in full swing now as the Pentagon climbs the escalation ladder in the most militarized part of the planet. North Korea is depicted as the provocateur and aggressor whenever it asserts that they have the right and capability to defend their country. Even as the Pentagon simulates the nuclear destruction of a country that it had already tried to bomb into the Stone Age, the corporate-owned media characterizes this extremely provocative act as a sign of resolve and a measure of self-defense.”"

Government's propaganda machine turns everything upside-down.

Terrorists are attacking politicians in Iraq in the run-up to elections.

Eric Margolis offers the short version.

"North Korea’s young new leader Kim Jong-un appears to be trying to use this crisis to force Washington into recognizing his nation, normalizing relations, and ending 60 years of US-led economic warfare against the North. "

I had to read a lot of articles to find that out. It's ridiculous that every article in the media doesn't point that out.

"First, nuclear conflict is unlikely. North Korea is not believed to have any long-ranged nuclear weapons, certainly none that could hit North America. North Korea might be able to strike South Korea or even Japan with a nuclear device. But then US nuclear weapons would wipe North Korea off the map.
The Pyongyang government of Kim Jong-un is not suicidal."

I'm glad to see Margolis has dialed back his analysis of the magnitude of the threat. The conventional threat is serious enough.

"Moreover, US ground and air forces are bogged down in Afghanistan and the Mideast, their equipment is run down, and the US Treasury seriously out of money. A real war in Korea might plunge the US into a depression. One must wonder if Kim Jong-un and his advisors have chosen this moment when Washington is over-stretched abroad to challenge the US. "

Maybe.