Many Terrorist Threats

by Mark Luedtke

A common thread runs through the current wars in the world – almost all of them involve radical Islam. It's easy to think of the War on Terror as a war against al Qaeda, the war in Afghanistan, or the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, but that limited viewpoint is dangerous. From Africa to New Guinea, radical Islam is involved in a series of conflagrations. Muslim extremists also conduct terrorist attacks all around the world. By any measure, radical Islam is waging a world war against numerous countries of diverse governments and religions.

Our newspapers naturally focus on Iraq and Afghanistan because American troops are fighting in those countries. To a lesser extent, Somalia is in the news because of our history there, and because of our support for the Somali and Ethiopian governments against the radical Muslims supported by al Qaeda. In these three countries, the radical Muslims are engaged with superior forces, fighting for regional goals, and currently they're not much of a threat to US security, but we can't afford to allow any of those countries to become a safe haven for terrorists to organize and launch attacks against us.

The fluid dynamics of the radical Islam movement make it extremely difficult to track and access threats. The US lists dozens of terrorist organizations, but there are dozens in Iraq alone, and they ally and transform monthly if not weekly.

Since we liberated Afghanistan, al Qaeda has been searching for a new safe haven to reorganize. Their base in the lawless mountains of Pakistan on the Afghan border is so remote that their effectiveness is limited. There are reports that al Qaeda and the Taliban are supported by factions of the Pakistani intelligence services, but even so, their freedom to operate in that environment is severely curtailed by our allies in Pakistan.

Al Qaeda would love to overthrow President Musharraf of Pakistan, create a rogue Islamic state, and get access to Pakistan's nuclear weapons. Al Qaeda and Taliban sympathizers in Pakistan make diplomacy extremely dicey. Musharraf is walking a tightrope, and the US and NATO can't clean out the lawless areas of Pakistan for fear of igniting a popular uprising that would empower al Qaeda.

Al Qaeda is working to establish a new base in Somalia, which would give it strategic assess to the Indian Ocean and Africa. The US is backing Somalia and Ethiopia, but it seems unlikely that Somali leader Abdullahi Yusuf will open his government and gain broad support. The Ethiopians already look like occupiers instead of liberators (much like the US in Iraq), and more Muslim uprisings seem likely. The African Union is reluctant to send in peace-keepers, and the Somalia government is unable to defend itself at this point.

Al Qaeda is also working to establish a safe haven in Bangladesh, resulting in the President suspending elections and creating a caretaker government.

Hezbollah is still the preeminent terrorist organization in the world. Their recent war with Israel showed that they have grown from terrorist organization and militia to a military and economic power capable of stalemating one of the fiercest militaries in the world. Hezbollah has cells in the US, Canada, Europe and South America. They come to America across both our unprotected borders.

Iranian and Syrian support for Hezbollah have made them a major power in the Middle East. Lebanon is on the verge of a civil war that could turn the country over to Hezbollah. Hezbollah has trained al Qaeda members in the past, so losing Lebanon to Hezbollah, with its access to the Mediterranean is a significant danger. Former Secretary General of Hezbollah, Sheikh Subji al-Tufeili, recently criticized Hezbollah for pushing Lebanon toward civil war. This might help stop the drive toward civil war.

Hizb-ut-Tahrir is a movement to re-create Muslim caliphate world-wide, and it's growing fast in popularity in the Middle East. It considers radical Islam's current war with the west unresolvable, an inevitable clash of civilizations, and advocates the non-violent overthrow of non-Muslim governments, only using jihad as a last resort. It could play a significant role in further radicalizing the general population of the Middle East.

Jihad is expanding in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and even into China. The breakaway Russian Republic of Chechnya provides a safe haven for jihadists, and threatens to capture a Russian nuclear weapon. Russian President Putin is turning back democracy and remaking Russia as an authoritarian state, using the threat of terrorism as support. But with a breakaway jihadist haven near nuclear missiles in the Caucasus, the US has very little power to deal with either threat.

But more immediate threats are near to home. Great Britain has a homegrown terrorist problem that spawned the London transit bombing and the recently thwarted US airline terrorist plan. Many British Muslims identify themselves as al Qaeda. France and its neighbors are unable to deal with the riots of Muslim youths. European jihadists are heading to Somalia to fight for al Qaeda's cause.

We have less advanced homegrown terrorists in Canada and the US as well. Our challenge is to defeat radical Islam abroad and in our own back yard without surrendering our freedom after every attack.