I think Iran is bluffing about it's nuclear program. We have a report that Ahmadinejad's nuclear weapons program is in shambles. But the maniac wants to pretend to be a nuclear power in 2007 to pretend to fulfill some stupid prophesy. In reality, he hasn't the expertise to develop nuclear weapons, so to carry out his bluff, he approached North Korea to buy a nuke and plans to stage a test in Iran, with North Korea's help, to convince the world Iran is a nuclear power.
But Ahmadinejad wouldn't pay for an untested nuke, so he demanded a test first. North Korea needed cash and oil, so it staged a test with Iranian observers last year despite the warnings from the international community and even China.
This doesn't make Iran any less dangerous. They may well have purchased several nukes from North Korea. Ahmadinejad's martyr complex is driving him to meet this prophesied deadline, and his goal is to gain support from the Muslim world, which is very threatened by Iran right now.
But striking Iran's nuclear facilities won't stop any of this. It will only generate support for a madman. No doubt this nuke could be flown to Iran with no practical chance for interdiction. No doubt such a test by Iran would panic the world. But panic woulb be the wrong reaction, before or after the test.
Bush is following the best strategy possible for dealing with Iran. Keep turning up the heat until the Iranians kick Ahmadinejad out of the kitchen. The Iranians don't share Ahmadinejad's martyrdom goal, and they don't like the effect on their economy that his decisions have brought. The Ayatollahs are critical. Ahmadinejad's days are numbered - hopefully before he can pull off the nuke test in Iran.
Update: Iranian official denies nuke capability.
Saturday, January 27, 2007
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