Friday, March 13, 2015

Federal Reserve

Despite all the money-printing, the dollar is up and gold is down. This means a colossal financial event is around the corner.
"When markets expect that US interest rates will be hiked, it typically strengthens the dollar. That's because people rush to change other currencies into dollars — they can make more money in dollar-denominated investments. The higher demand for the US currency drives its value up.
In the past, significant dollar gains against other currencies have pretty much happened only during periods of extreme financial or geopolitical distress.
The last four large dollar shocks in the past 45 years have been symptoms of huge financial events: the collapse of Lehman, Britain's panicky ejection from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in 1992, the first Gulf War, and Paul Volcker's shock rate hikes in the early 1980s.
Today's surge is already considerably larger than the one that surrounded Lehman's collapse, although the economic conditions are very different."
Uh-oh.

US economy most disappointing in world.
"It's not only the just-released University of Michigan consumer confidence report and February retail sales on Thursday that surprised economists and investors with another dose of underwhelming news. Overall, U.S. economic data have been falling short of prognosticators' expectations by the most in six years.
The Bloomberg ECO U.S. Surprise Index, which measures whether data beat or miss forecasts, fell to the lowest since 2009, when the nation was in the deepest recession since the Great Depression."
Government experts aren't.

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