Sunday, March 03, 2013

Economy

Ohio government's casinos haven't created as many jobs as promised. What a surprise. These casinos are just a new way of taxing us. Because they pay such a high tax rate, these casinos destroy wealth instead of creating it, so the jobs there destroy wealth like other government jobs. Better to have fewer than more.

The Dow and S&P are near the all time highs they set in 2007 and 2000, the last two bubbles. But you can't predict they will collapse because of the numbers. In 2000 and 2007, the Fed started raising interest rates because the CPI went up, and that triggered the collapse in both cases. There's nothing magic about the currently levels. Something will have to trigger the collapse. Bernanke may not cut rates regardless of CPI because he knows doing so will bring a collapse in the markets.
"In Part II: How the Market Failure Will Happen, I detail how the pattern I expect to see will play out and why I expect the fall in equity prices to happen within the May-September window.  This downdraft will be characterized by lots of volatility, formed by market routs and Fed-inspired rescues, alternating until some form of bottom is reached.  Along the way there will likely be a flight for "safety" into the dollar and Treasury paper, but only during the first stage of the next crisis.
Once a bottom is reached again, this might be anywhere from 40% to 60% lower than the current ~1500 level on the S&P 500 the process will begin to be dominated by rising government borrowing, which will cause interest rates to begin to rise. 
When that happens, expect capital to flee the paper market for hard assets.  In particular, that's when the upwards price revolution in the gold and silver markets will kick into high gear."
That's why you want to buy them now.

The only reason consumer spending is up is inflation. This is another lying statistic.

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